{ "$schema": "Real-world programs that delivered cash directly to people. Each entry has primary-source citation. We only include programs with peer-reviewed or official-source evaluation.", "givedirectly_kenya_ubi": { "name": "GiveDirectly Universal Basic Income RCT — Kenya", "start_year": 2017, "ongoing": true, "population": 23000, "villages_treatment": 195, "villages_control": 100, "design": "Three-arm RCT: lump sum $500, 2-year UBI ~$0.75/day, 12-year UBI commitment with same monthly amount. Total transfer over study window: $3,000.", "investigators": "Suri (MIT Sloan), Banerjee (MIT, Nobel 2019), Niehaus (UCSD), Faye, Krueger (Princeton)", "key_findings": [ "No reduction in labor supply across any arm.", "Substantial reallocation of labor toward entrepreneurship.", "Lump-sum arm produced the largest income gain (~50% over control).", "Long-term commitment arm produced behavior change (saving, investment) absent from short-term arm." ], "primary_source_name": "Banerjee, Faye, Krueger, Niehaus, Suri (2023). 'Universal Basic Income: Short-Term Results from a Long-Term Experiment in Kenya.'", "primary_source_url": "https://www.povertyactionlab.org/sites/default/files/research-paper/Universal-Basic-Income-Short-Term-Results-from-a-Long-Term-Experiment-in-Kenya_BFKNS_December2023.pdf", "registry": "https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/1952", "givedirectly_summary": "https://www.givedirectly.org/2023-ubi-results" }, "alaska_permanent_fund": { "name": "Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend", "start_year": 1982, "ongoing": true, "design": "Sovereign-wealth dividend. Each Alaska resident, including children, receives an annual cash payment funded by oil-extraction royalties invested in a $80B+ trust.", "coverage": "Every Alaska resident regardless of income, employment, or means test.", "recent_amounts": { "2022": 3284, "2023": 1312, "2024": 1702, "long_run_inflation_adjusted_avg_per_year": 1600 }, "currency": "USD", "annual_program_cost_usd": 1200000000, "key_findings": [ "No measurable reduction in aggregate labor supply over 40+ years (Jones & Marinescu 2022, AEJ:EP).", "Alaska maintains the lowest poverty rate among comparable rural-heavy US states.", "The dividend has survived four decades, multiple party transitions, and major oil-price downturns." ], "primary_source_name": "Alaska Department of Revenue, Permanent Fund Dividend Division", "primary_source_url": "https://pfd.alaska.gov/", "labor_evaluation_url": "https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pol.20190299" }, "iran_2011_universal_cash_transfer": { "name": "Iran Universal Cash Transfer (subsidy reform)", "start_year": 2011, "design": "Replaced energy and bread subsidies (~$50–70B/yr) with universal monthly cash deposits into individual accounts.", "coverage": ">70 million people — essentially universal national coverage.", "transfer_size": "~28% of median per-capita household income initially.", "first_year_disbursed_usd": 30000000000, "key_findings": [ "Headcount poverty fell from 22.5% to 10.6% as a direct effect of the transfer.", "No reduction in labor supply (Salehi-Isfahani & Mostafavi-Dehzooei 2018) — positive effects on women's and self-employed men's labor supply.", "Inflation eroded ~50% of real transfer value over five years because the nominal amount was not indexed. The poverty-reduction effect declined by ~40% as a result.", "Lesson: a fixed-nominal transfer is fragile. Indexing matters." ], "primary_source_name": "Salehi-Isfahani, D. & Mostafavi-Dehzooei, M. (2018). 'Cash transfers and labor supply: Evidence from a large-scale program in Iran.' Journal of Development Economics 135:349–367.", "primary_source_url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304387818306084", "imf_chronicle_url": "https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11167.pdf" }, "stockton_seed": { "name": "Stockton Economic Empowerment Demonstration (SEED)", "country": "United States", "start_year": 2019, "end_year": 2021, "design": "Randomized controlled trial: $500/month for 24 months, unconditional, no work requirement. 125 treatment + 200 control.", "evaluating_institutions": "University of Pennsylvania Center for Guaranteed Income Research, Stanford Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences, Jain Family Institute", "key_findings": [ "Full-time employment among recipients rose from 28% to 40% over 12 months (treatment); control group rose from 32% to 37%. Net employment effect: +7 percentage points.", "Reduced anxiety and depression scores.", "Reduced month-to-month income volatility.", "Most recipients used funds for essentials (food, utilities, auto repair, transit), not 'temptation goods.'" ], "primary_source_name": "West, S., Castro, A., Samra, S. & Coltrera, E. (2023). 'Impact of Guaranteed Income on Health, Finances, and Agency: Findings from the Stockton Randomized Controlled Trial.' Journal of Urban Health 100:1184–1198.", "primary_source_url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-023-00723-0", "first_year_report_url": "https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6039d612b17d055cac14070f/t/603ef1194c474b329f33c329/1614737690661/SEED_Preliminary+Analysis-SEEDs+First+Year_Final+Report_Individual+Pages+-2.pdf" }, "finland_basic_income_experiment": { "name": "Finland Basic Income Experiment", "start_year": 2017, "end_year": 2018, "country": "Finland", "design": "Government-mandated, statutory, nationwide randomized field experiment. 2,000 unemployed people aged 25-58, randomly selected from Kela's unemployment-benefit register, received a tax-free basic income of EUR 560 per month with no obligation to seek work or report income; a control group of ~173,000 continued on standard unemployment benefits.", "coverage": "2000 treatment recipients vs national register control group; transfer EUR 560/month (~28% of median monthly disposable income).", "transfer_size_eur_month": 560, "investigators": "Kela (Social Insurance Institution of Finland), VATT Institute for Economic Research, Ministry of Social Affairs and Health; Kangas, Jauhiainen, Simanainen, Ylikanno, Hamalainen, Verho", "key_findings": [ "Recipients worked on average a few more days over the year than the control group (about 78 vs 73 employment days) - a small but positive employment effect, contradicting the prediction that an unconditional payment would reduce work.", "Recipients reported significantly better mental wellbeing, lower depression and stress, higher life satisfaction, and more trust in institutions and their own future.", "The labour-market effect was modest and not statistically distinguishable in the first year; the experiment was limited to already-unemployed people, so it does not test a truly universal basic income." ], "primary_source_name": "Kangas, O., Jauhiainen, S., Simanainen, M. & Ylikanno, M. (eds.) (2020/2021). Evaluation of the Finnish basic income experiment. Reports and Memorandums of the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health 2020:15; book edition Edward Elgar 2021.", "primary_source_url": "https://julkaisut.valtioneuvosto.fi/bitstreams/f2041c17-878d-490c-8c5f-f12ab5cbd70b/download", "registry": "https://vatt.fi/en/-/results-of-the-basic-income-experiment-small-employment-effects-better-perceived-economic-security-and-mental-wellbeing" }, "babys_first_years_us": { "name": "Baby's First Years", "start_year": 2018, "country": "United States", "design": "Randomized controlled trial. 1,000 mothers of newborns with incomes below the federal poverty line in four US metro areas were randomly assigned to receive an unconditional USD 333/month (USD 3,996/year) or USD 20/month, by debit card, for the first several years of the child's life. Infant brain activity was measured by EEG around the first birthday.", "coverage": "1000 low-income mother-infant pairs; high-cash arm USD 333/month vs low-cash arm USD 20/month.", "transfer_size_usd_month": 333, "investigators": "Troller-Renfree, Costanzo, Duncan, Magnuson, Gennetian, Yoshikawa, Halpern-Meekin, Fox, Noble (Columbia, NYU, UC Irvine, Maryland, Wisconsin)", "key_findings": [ "Infants in families receiving USD 333/month showed greater high-frequency EEG brain activity (more high-frequency power) - patterns previously associated with later cognitive development - than infants in the USD 20/month group, the first experimental evidence that reducing poverty can causally change early brain activity.", "The effect was causal because group assignment was randomized, distinguishing it from the long-known correlation between poverty and child development.", "The pre-registered primary outcomes did not all reach significance, and EEG power is an indirect proxy: it is not itself a measure of cognition, IQ, or school outcomes, which the study did not yet measure at age one." ], "primary_source_name": "Troller-Renfree, S.V. et al. (2022). The impact of a poverty reduction intervention on infant brain activity. PNAS 119(5):e2115649119.", "primary_source_url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2115649119", "registry": "https://www.babysfirstyears.com/publications" }, "mincome_manitoba": { "name": "Mincome (Manitoba Basic Annual Income Experiment)", "start_year": 1974, "end_year": 1979, "country": "Canada", "design": "Federal-provincial guaranteed annual income field experiment. The town of Dauphin (~10,000 people) was a 'saturation site' where every resident was eligible for an income-tested guaranteed annual income; randomized samples elsewhere in Manitoba received varying guarantee levels and tax-back rates. Forget (2011) linked Dauphin participants to universal health-insurance administrative records and compared them to matched controls.", "coverage": "Dauphin saturation site (~10,000 residents) plus dispersed randomized Manitoba sample; income-tested guaranteed annual income.", "investigators": "Evelyn L. Forget (University of Manitoba); original program by Government of Canada and Province of Manitoba", "key_findings": [ "Hospitalizations among Dauphin residents fell 8.5% relative to matched controls during the experiment, driven mainly by fewer accidents/injuries and mental-health admissions.", "Work effort barely changed: only two groups reduced hours notably - new mothers (who took longer maternity leave) and teenagers (who stayed in school longer, raising high-school completion).", "The original 1970s experiment was defunded before any final report and its data sat unanalyzed for decades; Forget's findings rest on a retrospective linkage of one saturation town, not a fresh randomized analysis, so causal attribution is weaker than in a modern RCT." ], "primary_source_name": "Forget, E. L. (2011). The Town with No Poverty: The Health Effects of a Canadian Guaranteed Annual Income Field Experiment. Canadian Public Policy 37(3):283-305.", "primary_source_url": "https://utppublishing.com/doi/10.3138/cpp.37.3.283", "registry": "https://uwo.scholaris.ca/bitstreams/fc04d1ec-b665-4f30-ab32-9cb1c9addc25/download" }, "progresa_oportunidades_mexico": { "name": "PROGRESA / Oportunidades (later Prospera)", "start_year": 1997, "country": "Mexico", "design": "Large-scale conditional cash transfer with a built-in randomized rollout. 506 rural communities were randomized: 320 received the program in 1998, 186 served as controls until 1999. Cash went to mothers, conditional on children's school attendance and family health-clinic visits. IFPRI was commissioned by the Mexican government to run the independent evaluation.", "coverage": "506 randomized rural communities at evaluation; scaled to ~5 million households nationally. Transfers averaged ~20-30% of recipient household income.", "investigators": "Emmanuel Skoufias and IFPRI (International Food Policy Research Institute) team; Mexican government (SEDESOL)", "key_findings": [ "After two years the poverty headcount among participant households was 17.4% lower than controls and the poverty gap 36% smaller; secondary-school enrollment rose substantially, especially for girls.", "Adult labour supply did not fall and consumption rose; the transfers did not displace work, and child illness and stunting declined.", "Because the core transfer was conditional on school and clinic attendance, PROGRESA tests conditional, not unconditional, cash - so it cannot by itself separate the effect of money from the effect of the conditions, and later studies found much of the school gain survived even when conditions were relaxed." ], "primary_source_name": "Skoufias, E. (2005). PROGRESA and Its Impacts on the Welfare of Rural Households in Mexico. IFPRI Research Report 139.", "primary_source_url": "https://cgspace.cgiar.org/items/748d73dd-53b8-4391-9f70-f7d3aa37f1e7", "registry": "https://www.ifpri.org/publication/progresa-and-its-impacts-welfare-rural-households-mexico" }, "malawi_zambia_social_cash_transfers": { "name": "Government Social Cash Transfer programs (Transfer Project)", "start_year": 2010, "country": "Malawi and Zambia", "design": "Two government-run unconditional cash transfer programs evaluated by cluster-randomized controlled trials. Zambia's Child Grant Programme paid ~USD 12/month (flat, unconditional) to households with a child under five in three rural districts; Malawi's Social Cash Transfer Programme targeted ultra-poor, labour-constrained households. Evaluated by the Transfer Project (UNC Carolina Population Center, UNICEF, FAO, national governments).", "coverage": "Cluster-RCTs in rural districts of each country; Zambia transfer ~USD 12/month flat per household, paid to the (99% female) primary caregiver.", "investigators": "de Hoop, Groppo, Handa and the Transfer Project (UNC CPC, UNICEF Office of Research-Innocenti, FAO)", "key_findings": [ "The transfers strongly expanded household productive and entrepreneurial activity - more non-farm enterprises and farm investment - and adults shifted toward family enterprise rather than working less, refuting the 'cash makes people lazy' claim. (Handa et al. 2018, World Bank Research Observer 'myth-busting'.)", "School attendance and children's material wellbeing rose.", "HONEST COUNTER-EVIDENCE: in both countries the same transfers also INCREASED children's involvement in household agricultural work, some of it potentially hazardous, because expanded family farms and enterprises drew on child labour - a real negative side-effect, not a null. (de Hoop, Groppo & Handa 2020, World Bank Economic Review.)" ], "primary_source_name": "de Hoop, J., Groppo, V. & Handa, S. (2020). Cash Transfers, Microentrepreneurial Activity, and Child Work: Evidence from Malawi and Zambia. The World Bank Economic Review 34(3):670-697.", "primary_source_url": "https://academic.oup.com/wber/article/34/3/670/5611144", "registry": "https://transfer.cpc.unc.edu/" }, "india_sewa_madhya_pradesh_ubi": { "name": "SEWA / UNICEF Madhya Pradesh Unconditional Basic Income pilots", "start_year": 2011, "end_year": 2013, "country": "India", "design": "Two unconditional basic income pilots with randomized treatment/control villages, implemented by the Self-Employed Women's Association (SEWA) and funded by UNICEF. Every man, woman and child in eight treatment villages received a small monthly cash payment for 12-18 months (initially Rs 200/adult and Rs 100/child per month, later raised), paid individually with no conditions; twelve villages were controls. ~6,000 individuals received transfers.", "coverage": "8 treatment + 12 control villages in Madhya Pradesh; ~6,000 recipients; Rs 200/adult + Rs 100/child per month (later Rs 300 / Rs 150).", "investigators": "Davala, Jhabvala, Standing, Mehta; SEWA and UNICEF", "key_findings": [ "Recipient households increased spending on food, healthcare and schooling, with improved nutrition (especially for girls) and higher school attendance and performance.", "Economic activity rose rather than fell: more own-account work, livestock and small-business investment, and a shift from casual/bonded labour toward self-employment - women's economic activity rose most.", "This is a scholarly monograph evaluation of a randomized-village pilot, not a peer-reviewed journal RCT; the pilots were short (12-18 months), small in scale, and the cash amount was modest, so durability and scalability remain untested." ], "primary_source_name": "Davala, S., Jhabvala, R., Standing, G. & Mehta, S. K. (2015). Basic Income: A Transformative Policy for India. Bloomsbury Academic (open access).", "primary_source_url": "https://www.bloomsburycollections.com/book/basic-income-a-transformative-policy-for-india/", "registry": "https://library.oapen.org/handle/20.500.12657/58784" }, "bolsa_familia_brazil": { "name": "Bolsa Família — Brazil", "start_year": 2003, "ongoing": true, "population": 48000000, "families": 13800000, "design": "The largest conditional cash transfer program ever implemented. Transfers are tied to school enrollment and health-clinic visits for children, at the scale of nearly a quarter of Brazil's population over more than two decades.", "key_findings": [ "Extreme poverty in Brazil would be 33–50% higher without the program (World Bank evaluation).", "Accounted for 12–21% of the recent sharp decline in Brazilian income inequality.", "No measurable negative effect on labor force participation (Soares et al, multiple evaluations).", "Survived three presidencies of opposing parties — including a government that publicly opposed it — and was reinstated in expanded form under Lula in 2023." ], "primary_source_name": "World Bank, 'Lifting Families out of Poverty in Brazil: Bolsa Família Program'", "primary_source_url": "https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/793761468015579565/lifting-families-out-of-poverty-in-brazil-bolsa-familia-program", "imf_evaluation_url": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WP/2020/English/wpiea2020099-print-pdf.ashx" }, "cherokee_casino_dividend": { "name": "Cherokee casino dividend — Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians, NC, USA", "start_year": 1996, "ongoing": true, "population": 16000, "transfer_size": "~$4,000–$6,000 / year / person, including children", "design": "A naturally occurring quasi-experiment. From 1996 the Eastern Band of Cherokee distributed a per-capita share of casino profits to every enrolled member, including children. This intersected the ongoing Great Smoky Mountains Study of childhood mental health (1,420 children, 350 of them Cherokee), giving a randomized-by-tribal-membership comparison.", "key_findings": [ "Cherokee child poverty fell by half by 2001; behavioral and emotional problems in formerly-poor children dropped 40% to match never-poor levels.", "Each additional $4,000/year correlated with one extra year of educational attainment by age 21 and a 22% reduction in criminal record by age 16.", "Effects were intergenerational: children whose families joined the dividend at younger ages showed lasting decade-plus benefits." ], "primary_source_name": "Costello, E.J. et al (2020). 'Income dividends and subjective survival in a Cherokee Indian cohort.' SSM-Population Health 10:100530", "primary_source_url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7250001/", "earlier_work": "Costello, Compton, Keeler, Angold (2003), JAMA 290(15):2023–9" } }